Downstream CBAM talks open on 20 October: what is settled and what is still in dispute
Negotiations onextending CBAM to downstream products begin on 20 October, with a second andfinal scheduled session on 30 November. Negotiators on both sides are reportedto expect a political agreement at the second meeting. The Commission has warned thatwithout a deal before the end of the year, the planned start date of 1 January2028 is at risk.
Eachinstitution has now set out its position. The Commission proposed the extensionin December 2025, the Council agreed its general approach on 12 June, andParliament voted on 15 September. This is where they stand.
Where they already agree
Bothinstitutions want tougher rules against circumvention. That includes closermonitoring of resource shuffling, where a producer sends its cleanest output tothe EU without cutting its total emissions. Both would move exporters ontodefault values where they cannot show that they are not circumventing themechanism.
Both have alsodeleted the line in the Commission's proposal that would have let the EUconsider international carbon credits under Article 6 of the Paris Agreementwhen accounting for carbon prices paid abroad. The Council's view is that thequestion belongs in the wider reform of the EU ETS.
Where they differ
The productlist is the most visible gap. The Commission proposed around 180 downstreamproduct codes. The Council's position extends that to roughly 200, andParliament's to more than 400. The Council is expected to argue for the shorterlist on grounds of administrative burden. Parliament also wants the aluminiumthreshold cut from 50 tonnes to 5, and post-consumer aluminium scrap treated asa precursor.
The second gapis how default values are used for high-risk origins. The Council would havethe Commission ask for extra evidence where the risk of circumvention is high,and fall back on default values only if that evidence is unsatisfactory.Parliament would reverse the order. Default values would apply automatically togoods and origins judged high-risk, until the operator proves its case. Forimporters buying from those origins, the difference is whether verified data isaccepted from the start or has to be defended first.
The third isthe emergency clause. Article 27a would let the Commission temporarily suspendCBAM for specific goods. Parliament voted to delete it. The Council would keepit with a high bar: a price rise of more than 50 per cent against the ten-yearaverage, sustained for at least six months.
A fourth itemmatters most to businesses already inside the scheme. From 2027, importers musthold certificates covering at least half of their embedded emissions for theyear to date at each quarter end. In the first year that figure has to beworked out on default values, which overstate emissions for efficient producersand tie up cash. The Council has proposed letting importers use their 2026actual data, even where verification is still pending.
What it means for businesses
Manufacturersand importers of fasteners, wire, fabricated metal goods, machinery parts andsimilar products should plan on being in scope from January 2028. The openquestion is the length of the list, and the answer will fall somewhere between200 codes and more than 400. Importers sourcing from countries likely to belabelled high-risk should expect closer scrutiny of verified data under eitherversion of the text. Existing declarants should watch the holding rule, becausethe outcome affects how much cash they need in certificates during 2027.
We will reporton the first session after 20 October.
CBAM-Assuredtrains businesses coming into scope for the first time and helps them buildsupplier emissions data; contact us to start before the final list ispublished.