Second CBAM certificate price published: what two stable quarters mean for importers

The European Commission published the CBAM certificate price for the second quarter of 2026 on 6 July, at €75.28 per tonne of CO2e. It sits within eight cents of the first quarter's €75.36. For importers building up their first CBAM liabilities, that is welcome news.

How the price is set

The quarterly price is the volume weighted average of EU Emissions Trading System allowances auctioned during the quarter. Goods imported between April and June 2026 carry the Q2 price; goods imported between January and March carry the Q1 price. From 2027 the calculation moves to a weekly average, so the price will track the carbon market much more closely.

No money changes hands yet. Certificates go on sale in February 2027, and the first surrender deadline is 30 September 2027, covering all of 2026's imports. The published prices tell you what each quarter's imports will eventually cost.

What stability is worth

Two quarters within a narrow band makes forecasting simpler. An importer bringing in covered goods can now put a reasonably firm number against the liability accruing on every consignment. As a rough illustration, a tonne of imported steel with two tonnes of embedded CO2e carries a headline charge of around €150 at current prices, before deductions.

Those deductions matter. The free allocation adjustment removes a large share of the liability in 2026, and carbon prices already paid in the country of origin can be credited too. We have covered both on this site, and together they mean most importers' first bills will be well below the headline arithmetic.

Why the price will move

The certificate price follows the EU ETS, and the ETS is tightening. Free allocation for CBAM sectors phases down each year to 2034, auction supply is shrinking, and negotiations on linking the UK and EU carbon markets add another variable. Analysts expect upward pressure as the decade progresses. A stable €75 today is a planning assumption, not a promise.

What to do now

Importers should be logging embedded emissions quarter by quarter and applying the published price to each batch. That running total is the number your finance team needs for 2027 budgeting, and it is far easier to build as you go than to reconstruct next spring.

CBAM-Assured helps importers and their suppliers put the monitoring and reporting in place to keep those numbers accurate. Contact us if you would like support.

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